In 2020, it’s estimated that an additional $50-100 billion will be added to the shipping industry’s annual fuel bills. This is because a global sulfur cap is set for 2020. The updated global cap is expected to limit sulfur content in marine fuel down to 0.5 percent from 3.5 percent.
The spread between Emission Control Area (ECA) compliant marine gas oil and heavy fuel oil is expected to remain in the range of $250 and $400 per ton, regardless of the different price fluctuations.
Since the Arctic is melting it’s unlikely to attract much commercial shipping through the Northwest Passage, because it will remain an unreliable route.
There will be no shipping boom in Canada's Arctic according to Jackie Dawson, a geography professor at the University of Ottawa.
